CNOTES 2023 BIG 3 HORSE RACES !

[CNOTES]

2023 Kentucky Derby horses​

Position	Horse	Morning Line Odds
1	Hit Show	30/1	25/1
2	Verifying	15/1	18/1
3	Two Phils	12/1	16/1
4	Confidence Game	20/1	25/1
5	Tapit Trice	5/1	9/2
6	Kingsbarns	12/1	10/1
7	Reincarnate	50/1	40/1
8	Mage	15/1	16/1
9	Skinner	20/1	14/1
10	Practical Move	10/1	8/1
11	Disarm	30/1	25/1
12	Jace's Road	15/1	33/1
13	Sun Thunder	50/1	66/1
14	Angel of Empire	8/1	8/1
15	Forte	3/1	5/2
16	Raise Cain	15/1	66/1
17	Derma Sotogake (Japan)	10/1	10/1
18	Rocket Can	15/1	25/1
19	Lord Miles	30/1	25/1
20	Continuar (Japan)	50/1	50/1
21 (AE)	Cyclone Mischief	30/1	50/1
22 (AE)	Mandarin Hero (Japan)	20/1	20/1
23 (AE)	King Russell	50/1	50/1

Morning Line Odds as of May 1 / Live Odds as of May 3.

 

[CNOTES]

Kentucky Derby odds​

Post Position	Horse
15	Forte	5/2
5	Tapit Trice	9/2
10	Practical Move	8/1
14	Angel of Empire	8/1
6	Kingsbarns	10/1
17	Derma Scotogake	10/1
9	Skinner	14/1
8	Mage	16/1
3	Two Phil's	16/1
2	Verifying	18/1
22 (AE)	Mandarin Hero	20/1
19	Lord Miles	25/1
18	Rocket Can	25/1
1	Hit Show	25/1
4	Confidence Game	25/1
11	Disarm	25/1
12	Jace's Road	33/1
7	Reincarnate	40/1
21 (AE)	Cyclone Mischief	50/1
20	Cotinuar	50/1
23 (AE)	King Russell	50/1
16	Raise Cain	66/1
13	Sun Thunder	66/1

Odds as of May 3.​

 

[CNOTES]

How to find value when betting on horse racing odds​

Value should play a lead role in your handicapping repertoire since it allows you to wager more efficiently and effectively by focusing your bets on horses that offer an enticing risk/reward ratio.

Robert Criscola
Last Updated: Apr 26, 2023 1:35 PM ET

Photo By - USA Today Images
It has been said that beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Well, so is wagering value.

As much as ascertaining value is a key element in handicapping the horse racing betting odds, it’s as subjective as any other part of trying to pick a winner. What could be an overlay to one bettor just might be seen as an underlay by another.
There might not be a clear-cut answer but that doesn’t mean it should be ignored. Value is too important to be pushed into the background during a day at the races, especially with the 2023 Kentucky Derby fast approaching on Saturday, May 6.

Why you should look for value in horse racing​

Value should play a lead role in your handicapping repertoire since it allows you to wager more efficiently and effectively by focusing your bets on horses that offer an enticing risk/reward ratio.

As much as the pursuit of winners is paramount, there are times when backing a horse at low odds does not make sense. Maybe that horse is the most logical winner, but if you view it as only marginally better than a couple of other main contenders, then taking a short price on it is too risky.

In a race like the Kentucky Derby, for instance, even a horse that is a "standout" on paper will have to negotiate a 20-horse field full of runners who could tackle the great unknown of the 1 1/4-mile distance with aplomb, while the "standout" struggles.
It’s true we’ve seen horses like Secretariat run the race of their lives at short prices in the Kentucky Derby, as the betting public expected. But there are also horses like Arazi, who get quickly forgotten after burning plenty of cash in the Run for the Roses. A good horseplayer can’t simply dwell on either the positive or the negative alone.
Even if you believe the 6-5 favorite is the most likely winner of the race, if you view a 10-1 shot as being close to the chalk in terms of ability, it’s obvious that backing the horse at longer odds makes more sense – especially in the long run when the percentages will ultimately work in your favor.
Look at it this way: If your top choice at 6-5 wins 30% of the time, your return off 10 win bets will somewhere in the neighborhood of $13. Now if your 10-1 shot wins just 15% of the time, your return off 10 bets will be $33.

That’s basically how value works.

Horse racing value explained​

While some might interpret value as simply betting on longshots, it is more precisely betting on a horse whose odds are higher than they should be. Some horses who are priced at 40-1 can be underlays. They might actually deserve to be 100-1. Meanwhile, if you believe a horse should be the 3-1 or 4-1 second choice, but it’s actually 10-1 and the sixth option in the wagering, then you should try to put value to work for you.
In the 2011 Kentucky Derby, Dialed In was the 4-1 favorite off a win in the Florida Derby. While he may have had the best recent résumé in the race, he was far from a standout. Taking a horse like eventual winner Animal Kingdom, who was 20-1 and was largely an unknown quantity on dirt, was better value for bargain hunters.
Equally reflective of the way value works, there might be a time when a 6-5 favorite actually offers some value. Not a lot, but some. Those occasions are the times when you believe that 6-5 choice is so much better than its rivals that 1-2 odds seem a better fit.

Best of all, value rests with you. When it comes to pari-mutuel betting, you’re the one deciding who should be 6-5 and who deserves to be 10-1. While the morning-line might seem like a big help, in the end, it’s your belief in the differences between each horse in the field that dictates whether the odds on the tote board are askew and you should try to capitalize on it.

Yes, value is indeed in the eye of the beholder.

How to spot value in horse racing​

There are many different factors to consider when trying to spot value in horse racing, but here are some key points to keep in mind:
1) Study the form: Look at the horse's recent performances and compare them to the conditions of the upcoming race, such as the distance, track surface, and class level. Look for horses that have performed well under similar conditions and may be undervalued by the betting market.
2) Take advantage of unknown quantities: There’s a familiar adage at the track that goes “never take a short price on a horse trying something new.” When a horse is a first-time starter or is trying a new distance or surface, no one can be truly certain how the horse will fare. Look toward the pedigree and trainer for a clue as well as the morning workouts, and if the price seems fair, take a swing. In a race like the Kentucky Derby, there is almost never a horse in the race that has run the distance of 1 1/4-miles, so that unknown will always exist in the Run for the Roses. That makes shopping for value in the Derby all the more important.
3) Consider the jockey and trainer: Experienced and successful jockeys and trainers can often give their horses an edge. Look for horses that are ridden by jockeys who have a high win percentage or trainers who have a reputation for producing winners. When a horse gets a meaningful jockey upgrade from the last race, it can signal "intent" to win that day.
4) Analyze the odds: Look for horses that have longer odds than you think they should. This can indicate that the betting market is underestimating their chances of winning.
5) Evaluate the competition: Consider the quality of the other horses in the race. If there are weak contenders, this can increase the value of other horses in the field. Field size can also have a major impact on finding value. In a race like the 20-horse Kentucky Derby, a 3-1 win proposition is hardly appetizing in most cases. But 3-1 in a six-horse field could represent great value based on all the evidence. A smaller field also decreases the chances of luck playing a role in the wagering. The more horses there are in a field, the greater the likelihood a horse could run into traffic trouble.
6) Watch for late money: If you notice that a horse's odds have suddenly dropped significantly just before the race starts, this could be a sign that bettors with insider knowledge or expertise are putting money on that horse.
Be wary of exacta probables and multi-race will pays involving races late in the card too. If a horse is involved in exactas that are relatively low yet their win odds are relatively high, chances are good their win odds will decrease by post time.
If a horse is paying the second-lowest amount for a successful daily double but is fifth-choice in the win wagering, bettors should expect that win mutuel to decrease before the race is run.
Spotting value in horse racing requires careful analysis of multiple factors and a willingness to make informed judgments based on your research. It's important to remember that there is always an element of luck involved in horse racing, so even the most well-informed bettors can sometimes lose.
Consider the case of Candy Boy, who took a bet of over $1 million to win in the 2014 Kentucky Derby just before post time, which knocked his odds down from 16-1 to 9-1. Obviously, that bettor thought that they knew what they were doing, but Candy Boy finished a distant 13th that day.

 

[CNOTES]

Beginners guide to betting on horses​

Jump to:​

Bet typesExotic wagersHow to read oddsTips
The Kentucky Derby opens the Triple Crown in May and is the most popular horse racing event in the world and draws a ton of betting action on its horse racing odds.

Monique Vág
Last Updated: Apr 24, 2023 1:00 PM ETRead Time: 6 min

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Horse racing is one of the oldest and most popular betting markets around.
And even though the Triple Crown events — the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes — get all the attention in the spring, races are being held nearly every day of the year at tracks around the globe.
Picking the winner of a race is the most basic of horse racing bets, however, there’s a large menu of options for horse racing odds to choose from.

Types of horse racing bets​

There are two different categories of horse racing bets you can place: straight wagers and exotic wagers.

Straight wagers​

When making a straight horse racing bet, the focus is on the performance of a single horse in a single race. There are four versions of straight wagers:

Win​

This wager requires your favorite horse to finish first and win the race. That’s the only way your ticket is a winner. A win bet carries a higher risk than other straight wagers and therefore pays out more.

Place​

Betting on a horse to finish first or second. The payout on a place bet is less than a win bet (a smaller risk due to two possible payout results), but if your horse finishes first or second, you collect.

Show​

Betting on a horse to finish either first, second or third – also known as “hit the board”. Due to the nature of this bet, you have a better chance at winning because you have three options (inside the Top 3), but the payout is substantially less than a bet to win or place.

Across the board​

You're also able to combine all three of these straight wagers by doing an across-the-board bet - betting a horse to win, place and show. If the horse wins, you collect all three different payouts. You can also bet a combination of win and place or place and show.

Exotic wagers​

Exotic wagers offer the option of tying together the number of horse racing picks from the same race or across various races with one single bet amount.
Exotics have the potential for a much larger payout than straight wagers but have a higher risk due to the numerous results involved. All the picks included in the exotic wager must be correct to be graded a winner.
There are multiple variations of horse racing exotics:

Exacta bet​

Betting on the combination of horses that will come in first and second. You can bet it straight or box the selections, which means that as long as the ones you pick finish in the Top 2 – regardless of order – you win the bet. A boxed exacta costs twice as much as a straight exacta because you're paying for the added number of combinations.

Trifecta bet​

Trifecta wagers are similar to exacta bets but you're selecting the Top-3 finishers of the race. You can bet it straight, use a trifecta box, or include multiple horses. Of course, the more horses you include on the bet ticket, the larger the risk amount.

Superfecta bet​

Predicting the Top-4 finishers of the race. This is a very tricky wager. A lot of tracks or horse racing online allow this wager to be played at a 10 or 20 cent base, which allows you to maximize how many horses you can have without changing the amount wagered. Usually, with exotics, the base is $1 so lowering the base allows for more combinations.

Daily double bet​

A daily double wager is betting on the winner of two consecutive races. To win, you must correctly select the winner of both races. This bet is usually available in the first two races on the card or the final two races of the day.

Quinella bet​

Similar to the exacta, you're betting on which horses will come first and second but the order in which they finish first and second doesn't matter. However, unlike a box exacta (which requires two bets), a Quinella bet requires only one but normally doesn't pay as well.

Pick 3, 4, 5, 6 bet​

You must select the winner of each race in sequential order. The “pick” number refers to the number of races in the sequence, rather than the order of where they finish. You can bet it straight or like exotic wagers, you can include more horses in each race. But with more horses, the cost of the bet ticket drastically increases.

How to read horse racing odds​

Horse racing odds are most often displayed in fractional odds. They're essentially simple math: dividing one number by another and then taking that sum and multiplying it by your bet amount.
The one key thing when factoring fractional odds is how the numbers are displayed. If the larger number is being divided by the smaller number – ie: 3/1 – then the odds will pay out more than the original bet risked. But if the smaller number is divided by the larger number – ie: 1/3 – then the odds will pay out less than the original bet risked.
For example, odds of 3/1 will pay three times (300 percent) the amount risked, so a bet of $2 would profit $6 if it wins. Odds of 1/3 will pay only 33.33 percent of the amount risked, so a bet of $2 would profit only 67 cents if it should win. Odds of 1/1 will pay the same amount risked, so a bet of $2 would profit $2 if it should win.

Pari-mutuel betting​

Pari-mutuel betting in horse racing is the total pool of money wagered on a particular type of bet that is then divided up among the winners after the track deducts its overhead costs and taxes.
Due to horse racing being a pari-mutuel system, there are no fixed odds and odds will change as more bets are placed. You may not be guaranteed a profit on the amount wagered even if your ticket hits, depending on how much of that pool is riding on the same bet.
Once the race is off, you will be able to calculate your potential payout based on the chart below. This lets you know what a $2 bet at those particular odds will pay (including the original $2 wagered).

Horse racing betting sites​

Legal online horse racing betting sites fill the void created by sportsbooks for wagering on the races.
Check out our guide that identifies the best horse racing betting sites in your area.

Horse racing betting tips​

Follow the trends and stats​

There are so many different trends and tidbits of information, which can prove useful when betting on horse racing odds.
Much like human athletes, some horses excel at particular racetracks, over certain surfaces and distances, or at different times of the year. It's important to read the trends and play into particular strengths of trainers, jockeys, and the equine athletes themselves.
Some trainers flaunt amazing numbers with horses making their debut on the racetrack, some excel with juveniles, and some do better with horses over the turf. You can find some very useful information in the program: everything from horse racing trends to a jockey and trainer's particular ROI when they meet up.

Look for changes in surface or equipment​

You will want to keep tabs on notable changes that may help to spark a big effort.
Did a horse seemingly not grip the surface well or put forth an uncharacteristically bad effort? Maybe a change of surface could help. Did the horse drift badly in the deep stretch or get out to a slow start?
Blinkers (used to prevent a horse from seeing to the side) added or removed could help keep a runner's attention down the stretch.
A change in the distance could be very helpful. A horse may have tired late which ended up costing them a better finish, or another horse may have been crying out for more furlongs while making a late closing bid. Pay attention to these changes in distance and try to understand why they may be happening.
A drop-in class could also help yield a big effort, facing weaker competition than in previous races. On the other hand, a horse that has been racing well recently could offer a big price when running against much tougher fields. Although on paper they may appear to be overmatched, a horse entering with confidence or strong current form presents good value.

Manage your bankroll​

Although this one often seems self-explanatory, it's one of the trickiest things to master. Don't put all your money on one particular horse to win or spend all of it on a Pick 4 sequence.
Instead, try to diversify your bets and if you don't like the race or don't feel you have a solid read on it, don't bet.
Increase the amount of money you're willing to play based on confidence in your horse racing picks and don't go overboard trying to chase after that life-changing score in the Rainbow Pick 6. If you're betting hoping to yield a profit long term, there's no get-rich-quick solution.
Also, don't let high odds scare you away, and don't be afraid to take a shot. Sometimes all it takes is a little bit of money and a gut feeling to cash big.